2 docs tagged with "calibration"

Fermi Estimation is a technique for making order-of-magnitude estimates of unknown quantities using basic reasoning and widely-known reference points. Named after physicist Enrico Fermi, who could estimate complex quantities (like the number of piano tuners in Chicago) with surprising accuracy from first principles, it develops the skill of producing defensible approximations when exact data is unavailable — essential for decision-making under uncertainty.

Overconfidence Bias is the tendency to have excessive confidence in the accuracy of one's own answers, judgments, and predictions — being more certain than the evidence warrants. One of the most consistently documented biases in psychology and behavioural economics, it manifests in three forms: calibration overconfidence (confidence intervals too narrow), better-than-average effect (rating oneself above average), and illusion of control (overestimating influence over outcomes).