Optimism Bias
Optimism Bias is a cognitive phenomenon where individuals overestimate the likelihood of positive events and underestimate the likelihood of negative events happening to them. Formally identified by Neil Weinstein in 1980 and expanded by neuroscientist Tali Sharot, this mental model explains why we under-save for retirement, smoke despite health warnings, and launch doomed business ventures. Mastering the Optimism Bias allows for "Defensive Pessimism" and more accurate risk assessment without sacrificing the motivation and resilience that a healthy level of optimism provides.