Overconfidence Bias
Overconfidence Bias is the tendency to have excessive confidence in the accuracy of one's own answers, judgments, and predictions — being more certain than the evidence warrants. One of the most consistently documented biases in psychology and behavioural economics, it manifests in three forms: calibration overconfidence (confidence intervals too narrow), better-than-average effect (rating oneself above average), and illusion of control (overestimating influence over outcomes).