Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning is a strategic decision-making mental model that replaces single-point forecasting with a set of plausible, structurally distinct futures. Rather than predicting which future will occur, it helps leaders design strategies that remain viable across multiple futures — building robust plans that survive uncertainty rather than fragile ones optimized for a single expected outcome. Developed at Shell in the 1970s, it is now widely used in corporate strategy, military planning, public policy, and long-range business planning.