Black Swan Theory
Black Swan Theory, developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book of the same name, describes a category of high-impact, low-probability events that are outliers beyond the realm of regular expectations, carry extreme consequences, and are retrospectively rationalized as predictable after they occur. Taleb argues that most of the variance in historical outcomes β financial crises, technological revolutions, wars, pandemics β is explained by Black Swan events that conventional risk models cannot capture, and that the rational response is to build systems that are robust or antifragile to such events rather than attempting to predict them.