TAM SAM SOM market sizing
How big is the market, really? Build it from the bottom up.
TAM is everyone who could buy, SAM is the part you can actually serve, SOM is what you can win in the next few years. The canvas builds each number from counts and prices, and writes the assumption next to it — so the estimate can be argued with.
- Price
- Free
- Online
- Runs in your browser — two runs with no account, then a free account
- Desktop
- Also works on your own files and writes the result up
Runs on the MindMax thinking canvas →All online tools
When to size a market this way
For a pitch, a business case, or deciding whether a product is worth building at all.
- Bottom-up beats top-down: number of customers × what they would pay is easier to defend than “1% of a big industry”.
- Every step from TAM to SOM needs a reason — a channel you can reach, an integration you need, a benchmark from similar products.
- The gap between SAM and SOM is where the real question is: what has to go right to win that share?
How the canvas builds it
Type the problem
One sentence is enough — the question you would bring to a whiteboard.
Pick “TAM / SAM / SOM”
The framework decides how the problem is cut: which cards appear and what each one must answer.
Read the map
One card per branch, plus a hub card that says what the branches add up to.
Go deeper where it matters
Expand any item: break it down again, ask a follow-up, or apply another framework to that branch.
Where it gets hard
- Two runs with no account, then a free account
Type your problem and the canvas builds it right in your browser. Two runs need no account; after that, sign in with a free account and runs use the AI allowance in your plan. Canvases stay in this browser — export them, or share a read-only link, to keep them elsewhere.
- Numbers in the example are illustrative
The figures show the method, not real market data. For your own market, every count and price needs a source.
- In the desktop app today
The closest skill today is Fermi estimate from the skill library, which builds an estimate step by step on the desktop canvas. A dedicated TAM / SAM / SOM skill is coming with the online version.
Common questions
What is the difference between TAM, SAM and SOM?
TAM is the total demand for the product; SAM is the part your product and channels can serve; SOM is the share of SAM you can realistically win in a few years.
Top-down or bottom-up?
Bottom-up: count the customers you can name and multiply by a price you can justify. Top-down figures are useful only as a sanity check.
Is it free?
Yes. Two runs online need no account; after that a free account is enough, and runs use the Free plan’s weekly AI allowance. Exploring the examples is always free, and the AI canvas in the desktop app works on the Free plan too.
Size your market with numbers you can defend
Two runs need no account, then a free account. To work on your own files, use the free desktop app.